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East Pacific/2015/04E/Archive/1
Public Advisory TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 1 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 8:00 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 8:00 AM PDT...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 137.3W CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: HIGH ABOUT 1,270 MI...2,045 KM SE OF HILO, HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 15 KT...17 MPH...27 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 8:00 am PDT, the center of newly-formed Tropical Depression Four-E was located with high confidence near 13.1N 137.3W, about 1,270 miles (2,045 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), the minimum barometric pressure was 1004 millibars (29.65 inHg), and the cyclone was moving west-northwest at 15 knots (17 mph, 27 km/h). Four-E is expected to track into the Central Pacific later today, where environmental conditions will be marginally conducive for slight intensification over the next 48 hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 2:00 pm PDT. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 8:00 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 The area of disturbed weather located within the southwestern reaches of the East Pacific has continued to organize this morning. Deep convection, although largely weighted west of the center, has wrapped more tightly around the low-level circulation over the past few hours, and upper-level outflow has expanded. The initial intensity has been set at 30kt based on data from an earlier ASCAT pass. Environmental conditions are not expected to be overwhelmingly favorable throughout the forecast period. Wind shear is a low 5 to 10 knots atop the cyclone and should remain so throughout the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Four-E is expected to approach a potent upper-level trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which should act to increase wind shear to as much as 40 knots. The cyclone is currently tracking over ocean temperatures on the order of 27C, but these values should fall below 26C between 72 and 96 hours as it moves west-northwest. The environment Four-E is currently in is characterized by an abundance of mid-level moisture, but again, these values are forecast to fall over the coming days. None of the reliable models, whether it be the GFS, ECMWF, SHIPS, or LGEM, are bullish when it comes to the forecast strength of the system, and the intensity forecast only indicates slight strengthening over the next few days. Dissipation is possible by the end of the forecast period. Four-E is currently tracking swiftly west-northwest on the southwestern flank of a 588dm mid-level ridge to the cyclone's northeast. This trajectory is expected to remain in place throughout 96 hours. Thereafter, interaction with an upper-level low, as well as the forecast shallowness of the system, may cause Four-E to turn more west-northwestward. Statistical, dynamical, and global model guidance are all in fairly good agreement, and the cyclone does not appear to pose a direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands at this time. INIT 07/1500Z 13.1N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.0N 140.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.4N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.7N 145.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 18.8N 147.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.7N 151.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 23.6N 155.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14